Monday, February 16, 2015

Why ISIS Might Be Able To Unify The Mid-East

No, I'm not saying ISIS is good. Seriously, nobody says that. What I am saying is that I've now seen more than several nations strike back at ISIS, and some of them are Arab Spring nations. Now, while ISIS has enjoyed some victories, they will be temporary. Cities will be re-taken in Syria, Libya, and Iraq. Mostly because of U.S. and local forces, but ISIS isn't making friends, and while it's busy pissing off the entire civilized world, now it's pissing off the nations you'd think might ave turned a blind eye tot he formation of an Islamic state.

Turkey has taken the gloves off, along with Iraq, Iran, Jordan, and now, Egypt. EGYPT! Egypt is by far the largest and most democratic of Arab states. While all of the above mentioned countries with the exception of Turkey and Jordan have gone through the so-called 'Arab Spring', and have internal struggles of their own, Egypt is a titan among them all. Even with the civil strife, they still have an incredibly effective (and U.S. armed/trained) military, and they do not take kindly to threats against their citizens - Muslim or Christian. ISIS miscalculated heavily.

Jordan is also a staunch U.S. ally, and now they are bombing ISIS in retaliation for the beheading of their pilot. In each case, the motive has been 'revenge'.

While ISIS draws foreign fighters to their fronts, they will never be able to form a safe and secure Islamic state after pissing off Egypt. Not going to happen.

The US calculus on this has been painfully slow to watch, but the results now speak for themselves. ISIS is an Islamic problem. An extremist faction which is detestable to civilized Muslims. Fatwas will be issued by powerful imams in Iran, Egypt and maybe even Saudi Arabia (who knows?). ISIS began surrounded by enemies, and they will perish surrounded by enemies. The US was wise to allow the Muslim world to experience some losses a-la ISIS, as brutal as that may have seemed.

Obama has been adamant about how ISIS, Iraq, Syria, Libya are issues for them to sort out. The violence NEEDS to run its course, like a fever burning through a patient. The end result is a civilized Middle East which is all but immunized against this sort of militarized radicalism (or not... you know, Afghanistan...). That may be a rosy picture, but once you have Egypt on your ass, you're pretty much done. Now that Egypt, Iran, Jordan, etc are saying NO to ISIS, they're going to be short lived. I give them a couple years, at best. It's just such a shame all those people want to throw away their lives for something that the Arab world will never allow to happen.

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